Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 1.401502 1.454830 1.509829 1.570951 1.637173 1.706976 1.786405
2025-12-28 1.343030 1.415276 1.492092 1.580340 1.679555 1.788429 1.918029
2026-01-04 1.306632 1.393113 1.487299 1.598452 1.727348 1.873814 2.055405
2026-01-11 1.263210 1.358879 1.465018 1.592965 1.745102 1.923080 2.151638
2026-01-18 1.230236 1.333736 1.450450 1.593848 1.768321 1.978091 2.256841
2026-01-25 1.186318 1.293402 1.415602 1.567880 1.756404 1.987917 2.304037
2026-02-01 1.156544 1.267954 1.396600 1.559196 1.764089 2.021296 2.382820
2026-02-08 1.128702 1.243419 1.377255 1.548550 1.767871 2.048793 2.454559
2026-02-15 1.102966 1.220270 1.358387 1.537170 1.769428 2.072540 2.521844
2026-02-22 1.086698 1.207779 1.351757 1.540430 1.789489 2.121419 2.628311
2026-03-01 1.057403 1.178426 1.323188 1.514300 1.769059 2.113032 2.648327
2026-03-08 1.035764 1.157799 1.304731 1.500328 1.763961 2.125256 2.700007
2026-03-15 1.014621 1.137662 1.286804 1.487052 1.760080 2.140180 2.759353
2026-03-22 1.006456 1.133311 1.288515 1.499414 1.791693 2.207915 2.910112
2026-03-29 1.001727 1.132995 1.295174 1.518371 1.833171 2.292763 3.099614
2026-04-05 0.987826 1.120635 1.285815 1.515137 1.842559 2.329107 3.208538
2026-04-12 0.976857 1.111665 1.280500 1.517067 1.859265 2.377596 3.345334
2026-04-19 0.956301 1.089929 1.257855 1.494216 1.838328 2.364583 3.363554
2026-04-26 0.942902 1.077096 1.246590 1.486783 1.839901 2.387898 3.455351
2026-05-03 0.929340 1.063743 1.234266 1.477390 1.837977 2.405106 3.536775
2026-05-10 0.916058 1.050468 1.221703 1.467212 1.834318 2.418985 3.612860
2026-05-17 0.908500 1.044445 1.218627 1.470311 1.850985 2.468177 3.771554
2026-05-24 0.891044 1.025149 1.197266 1.446546 1.824886 2.441635 3.757725